According to an A.P.-GfK poll, McCain and Obama are basically running even among likely voters. After the last presidential debate many voters decided to go back home to their own party, raising McCain’s percentage and even out the previous number chasm. Some GOP pundits admit that “Joe the Plumber” did strike a chord with many whites and voters earning less than $50,000.

Some voters rallied back to McCain because of his experience, others behind Obama because of the “lying ads” and his choice of running mate. Bottom line: the contest is still very close and bound to fluctuate as we’re approaching November 4th.

Why are the polls so changeable, one might ask? As per Charles Franklin, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin and a polling authority, “If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong.” Some of the reasons are the wording of the questions, the voter’s interpretation and the margin of error.

Starting with the day after the last debate, it shows that McCain’s increase was due to his strong debate performance and putting Obama on the defensive and a strike of genius by mentioning “Joe the Plumber.”

Because voters are still vacillating, we’ll just have to wait and see till the last count of all the ballots who is the real winner.

POLLS VARIATION INDICATES TIGHT RACE
By Liz Sidoti (A.P 10/23/08)
Abstract by Johana Nadler

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What are Obama’s chances of winning this presidential race? Obviously, better than 50-50, only because he has been in the lead since he started all the way back in the primary.
Yet, this race is far closer than it should be, and Obama knows it, which is why he keeps campaigning relentlessly, and it is a puzzling fact.

Let’s try and see why:

• We’re facing a recession worst than in 1930.
• Studies show that a party will lose the election when the economic growth is less than two percent.
• The GOP is in ruin, and this is especially due to George W. Bush, the most unpopular president in American history.
• The war in Iraq was a tragic mistake that led the rest of the world to revile us.
• Our foreign policies are null.
• Even if we were not in such disastrous economical situation, it is rare that a party remains in the White House longer than two terms.
• McCain isn’t a young man. At 72 years old he will be, should he win, the oldest president to be nominated. Additionally, he has a long history of skin cancer, which makes people ponder whether he will be able to stand four years.
• Lobbyist-insiders are running McCain’s campaign from Washington D.C.
• McCain’s party never trusted him completely and some even less since he chose Palin.
• Obama spends four times as much as McCain on his campaign ads and has been using the latest technology and newest methods of voter education and outreach. McCain has not.
• The “’mainstream’ media, or what is “Left” of it, has favored and fawned over Obama from the start.” Needless to say their coverage has been flagrantly slanted.

Nonetheless, despite all these factors, McCain remains in the race with “reputable national polls more or less within the margin of error.” And that is mind blowing and against any logical deduction. So Obama better be on his guards and wonder why despite all his efforts McCain is stillshadowing him.

WHY IS MCCAIN STILL A FORCE TO CONTEND WITH?
By Howard Fineman (Newsweek 10/18/08)
Abstract by Johana Nadler

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Yes! Poll history has shown that Democrats have a habit of “snatching up defeat from victory,” which is why Obama keeps campaigning in full force, reminding his followers not to be too lax.

We all know that polls are truly left to interpretation and are not one hundred percent accurate. A Gallup daily tracking poll showed a 6 points lead for Obama; however, it actually represents Obama dipping below the 50 percent, which is a 2 percent decrease.

A Gallup poll of “traditional voters” shows only a 2 percent margin of error between Obama and McCain – 49 percent to 47 percent for McCain. This was confirmed today when the AP-Yahoo poll shows that if the election was held today Obama with 44 percent would only win by 2 percent over McCain at 42 percent.
However, with the increased amount of registered voters this time, using “traditional voters” as a barometer of the national voting projection might not be so accurate.

That is why Obama is concentrating on battleground states. Yet, even there it is difficult to track down the exact number.

One fact is concrete: in both national polls, there is only a 2 point margin and it means an extremely tight race with just 18 days left till November 4th. For this reason, Obama knows that McCain is still a strong adversary, especially with the undecided and those who are loyal to Hillary Clinton and might just go over to McCain.

REPUBLICANS CAN STILL WIN ON NOV.4TH.
By Dana Blanton and Caroline Shively (FOXNews 10/17/08)
Abstract by Johana Nadler

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